Tracking the Paris Climate Deal (2015 to 2019 NY meeting)
 |
| The Arctic icecap is progressively melting at a progressive rate |
End of implementing period of Paris Climate Deal
(years 2019 madrid CoP25 to 2021 Glasgow CoP26)
 |
| author: IMBA prof. J. Hugo Von Veschler, the green Strategy contributor |
Part 3 of Tracking the PCD
(Document Update written in Jan 2022 to cover beginning of 2020 till Glasgow event in the end 2021)
This is a short recap of 5 relevant outcomes achieved in years 2020 and 2021 as regards progress toward the planetarium aim: the threshold of upwards temperature variation of earth surface kept in 2 ºC. A threshold as such require to phase out the usage of fossil fuels to generate electricity in 12 more years. It is the so called NetZero aim.
I) Glasgow COB26, the contractual end of implementation of 5 years lap couldn't be set. UN COP's leaders expected to end it up in Glasgow by December 2021. Outcome of the summit was however deceptive since the clue matter of trading and compensating pay per emissions was not even raised during the sessions. It's about the Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement's Rules-book, which rules on the carbon markets and general cooperation.(A) It is the last part pending of agreement to be incorporate to the Paris Agreement so as to make it fully operative. During COP25 Madrid this matter wasn't agreed either. Too much still hanging on further meeting over and over again.
In other words, These proposals represent an important step in Europe's decarbonization path and will help to deliver the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, and becoming climate neutral by 2050. (*)
Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal, Dr. Frans Timmermans, said: “Europe needs to turn the page on fossil fuels and move to cleaner energy sources. This includes replacing fossil gas with renewable and low carbon gases, like hydrogen." (*)
II) EU's public opinion has blamed G20 as the main guilty of the global warming, with special mention to the BRICS group. The G20 clearly identified as responsible of the 3/4 of global hazardous emissions, considering they account with 88% of Planet wealth. Therefore, for the the first time ever, they have agreed to an amount of funds to finance clean energies progress:
In the 2021 G20 Rome summit "leaders of the world’s largest
economies highlighted their commitment to boosting investment in clean
energy technologies. In the G20 Rome Leaders’ Declaration,
they encouraged the continued updating of the IEA’s Sustainable
Recovery Tracker, which measures how 
much of the spending mobilized by
governments in response to the Covid-19 crisis is going towards clean
energy. The Sustainable Recovery Tracker was launched in July as a key
IEA contribution to Italy’s Presidency of the G20 this year" Source: https://www.iea.org/news/g20-leaders-recognise-iea-s-work-on-tracking-sustainable-recoveries
Despite the importance of this official disclosure from G20, scientists and analysts pointed out that G20's CONTRIBUTION exhibits 2 problems: a) it is 40% of that is needed, and b) most of the G20's funds destination is to the most advanced economies.
As the The New York Times wrote in October 2021: Even if all countries achieve the targets they set for themselves in the Paris Agreement, average global temperatures are on track to rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Reaching the target would require big polluting countries to strengthen those targets, or Nationally Determined Contributions, as they are known, by committing to reduce emissions much faster between now and 2030.
The G20 leaders committed “to take further action this decade” and to update their plans as necessary.
III) Price of electricity increases 2 to 3 fold in 2nd semester 2021. The Wholesale Base-load Electricity tracking tool (https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/default/files/quarterly_report_on_european_electricity_markets_q1_2021_final.pdf) shows prices for the EU countries in first Q 2021 well below 50 EUR MWh. Since then, these prices have not stopped rising, to the the extent to overpass 100 units in several countries by end 2021. Electricity prices going up to the clouds, along with increase of emissions es ever before.
One of this rise increase drive is the booming price of natural gas from Rusia.
(See Bloomberg report in: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-30/europe-has-never-paid-so-much-for-power-as-2021-costs-hit-record)
IV) Price and supply of Natural gas stressed prices in 2021. Europe’s energy crunch was a result of shortages of natural gas just as
demand rebounded following 2020’s lock-downs. The crisis was also
aggravated by lower than normal wind speeds and nuclear power outages
that have strained power grids, forcing the region’s energy companies to
burn polluting fossil fuels. (As Bloomberg report hereabove cited)
Purchasing prices of Natural Gas have largely increased in 2021in light of duopoly of offer for EU: Russia and Algeria gaseoducts. High dependence of several EU countries of coal mines (Silesia and Ruhr basin) together with their increasing needs of imported natural gas and crude oil, configurates a problematic energy matrix to reach a rapid netZero emission in short terms. Bearing on mind that the 3 energy consumption macrosegments in the EU are clearly % deficitaries in renewable (Actual 2016 and 2020 estimation of share as EU commission sources) :
Electricity 34%
Heating and cooling 46%
Transport 33%
Furthermore, EU ETS prices, (the "pay per emit" mechanism in the EU) have increased as well thus adding other price increase of electricity. As said the energy crunch in EU seems far for being solved. Unless renewable and nuclear energy may compete to substitute fossil supplying before 2050.
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/default/files/quarterly_report_on_european_electricity_markets_q1_2021_final.pdf
Several countries reopening coal power plants so as to counteract high price of electricity generation.
V) Hydrogen production techniques booming at all level. Several qualities classes of H2 though cost/ton of the greenest varieties still higher than other energy sources. Street car manufacturer like Toyota, Hyundai, Mazda, Ford are shaking the car industry by introducing to the market different types of new technology of engines, electrics, hybrid, and Hydrogen base. Along with the banning of fossil fuel after 2035, the EU is leading technologies to plant networks of Service stations aimed to fuel the new electric car models. Heavy transport as truck and trains started to operate on a reduce base in EU and USA. Besides, investigation also is opened to new other save and clean fuels like low gasoline, refine diesel, and bio fuels based on the Biogas.
 |
| source: General recap pppsx presentation by HVV |
VI) HONU's target of 1.5ºC temperatura increase by 2050 might arrive before that, scientois sector claim.
2045 green strategy vs. demand for Oil
Crude Oil. OPEC's prediction is still a demand increase as well as prices per barrel. (90USD Brent barrel as of Feb 4th 2022) As CINCO DIAS, Oil will continue being the largest source in the world's energy mix, yet its relative importance would decrease. See DEMANDA DE PETROLEO DE LA OPEP DE 2019 A 2045 Original Source: "statista.com"
Hydrogen. It appears as the most important source of electricity generation, provided that cost/ton be drastically reduced to compete in the market with other sources.
Nuclear. Countries as France , China and India predict increase in number of nuclear new plants. Russia accounts with 2nd largest country as numer of nuclear plants.
VI 1.5C temperature annomaly set forth in 2050 as limit, is possible abeing attained much before the date
Tracking the Paris Climate Deal (2015 to 2019 NY meeting)
Background. Article covering up to 2019 as referenced in the top
1.
As far as Global Warming is concern, out of the 2 ºC
threshold of upwards temperature variation (agreed in the Paris December 2015
talks as the end-century global aim), its first centigrade degree has already
been achieved as UNEP/WMO recently reported. That had happened while covenants were on process of setting up that target in Paris.
2.
Bearing in mind that an additional 0.5 ºC variation seems to be already on the
reach, such global end-century aim would then show a bias of half century in
advance.
3.
The flashing point of 400ppmv (maximum CO2 volume laid
down in the troposphere as the Keeling curve) was believed by scientists as the critical one. However, recent measurements show it is already over-passed and the trend is to raise.
4.
Consequently, some scientific sources have declared that the process of GW is already
irreversible, no matter if the volume CO2 remains stable in the future.
5.
Fossil - base sources of electricity at global level still represents 45% of carbon emission ( or, 2 thirds of total as other sources. (A) Nevertheless, several countries' particular policies in energy dependence, would attain a low-carbon economy yet along the next decade
6. 2020 is the end of the implementation period mandated by the PCD and the launch of operative plans for all covenants. Bearing on mind that a significant number of projects are already on place in a regional o local base, global plans will require a thorough funding commitment from each of the signing countries (186). And this is a crucial issue to be agreed in Madrid next month.
 |
| credit: Global Trade.com |
a) Extreme Global Trade
b) Deterioration of key land ecosystems
c) Seas infection due to plastics waste
The hand of the men, and women, is certainly behind that situation. We are all anxiously regarding what sort of decisions Chiefs of State and Government will have to make in Madrid to contend with a situation as
such.(B)
Update January 2020. As Madrid outcome did not show a significant agreement at global level (though quite a large numbers of partial and individual pledges and advancements were registered) and the last summit programmed for Glasgow in December 2020 was deferred without date, the PCD implementation period agreed will remain openup.
Vienen los años calientes
BACKGROUND. for students and academics. Publicado en LinkedIn en la pagina del prof. J. H. Von Veschler in year 2016
https://es.linkedin.com/in/intlenvironmentalpolicy
Investigadores, Científicos y divulgadores del Calentamiento Global insinuaban el pasado diciembre 2015 – ver mi OPR1 de dicho mes – que estaríamos a las puertas de alcanzar un grado Celsius de incremento de la temperatura global histórica (medida tomando como base Cero 1880). Pues bien, las más rigurosas fuentes de datos mundiales – las prestigiosas “Climate Central” y la NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) acaban de comprobar que así ha sido. Porque el año 2015 pasó a ser el más caluroso de toda la serie estadística.
No obstante, la situación empeora. Estas dos agencias acaban de predecir que este año 2016, lejos de estabilizarse, la temperatura media global histórica seguirá subiendo hasta colocarse muy próxima al grado y medio Celsius de incremento. En circunstancias que el acuerdo de Paris entre 196 estados y gobiernos celebrado el pasado diciembre propugna actuaciones planetarias para impedir que dicha media alcance LOS DOS grados de incremento DENTRO DE ESTE SIGLO. A este paso, ello podría ocurrir no obstante mucho antes. Tomando en cuenta que el 2020 comienza la aplicación del Tratado, estamos otra vez tarde, muy tarde. Quince años al menos. Los datos se pueden encontrar en:
Una vez más, en materia de calentamiento global, como asimismo en otros terrenos de protección del medio natural, el tiempo disponible para actuar se ha reducido drásticamente ¿Cuánto más tardará en llegar el segundo de los dos grados objetivos deseados y firmados en Paris? Esto se ha convertido en una carrera dramática.
Esta variación hasta este primer grado aproximado, correspondiente a un aumento calculado sobre la base científica oficial de 1880, y que ya habríamos alcanzado, se ha venido manifestando a lo largo de estos últimos 136 años; aunque la aceleración brutal se ha producido durante los últimos 35 dejando una curva que se acerca peligrosamente hasta los dos grados de variación.
Lo que se muestra aquí es solamente la forma de la curva buscando ilustrar el efecto calentamiento. A partir del año 2000 aproximadamente es cuando la curva empezó a tomar la forma que aquí se muestra. Los datos corresponden a medias globales de la temperatura en superficie del planeta, según mediciones efectuadas por más de 500 estaciones de recogida de datos y las estadísticas y gráficos oficiales se pueden visitar en los sitios web que se encuentran al final del este artículo.
Nuestra organización también se sumó a los científicos e investigadores que predijeron que los objetivos llegarían en plazos mucho más rápidos de lo estimado en Paris el pasado diciembre. (ver nuestro OPR8 publicado en diciembre 2015 aquí en LinkedIn)
Respecto al futuro, existe la posibilidad que el calentamiento siga progresando siguiendo esta tendencia de incremento que se muestra. Hasta que, en algún momento, la curva declinará. Ello solo puede ocurrir cuando las emisiones de CO2 cesen de mandarse a la troposfera. No obstante, parece ser que, pese al notable incremento del ritmo de sustitución de las fuentes de energía, que están pasando de fósiles a ‘limpias’, los millones de toneladas de carbón que ya ocupan la troposfera no van a desaparecer, así como así. Más bien tienden a quedarse y así lo manifiesta el último reporte científico (*). Habrá que consultar a los expertos para aclarar este extremo. Lo que se quedaría en el cielo sería el contenido neto, después de producida la fotosíntesis de los vegetales.
Como se ve, la adopción de medidas para afrontar el cambio climático ya no solo es inaplazable, es que han llegado tarde.
El aumento de la altura del mar, las grandes sequías, los incontrolables incendios y el calor en ciertas regiones, junto con la violencia de los próximos fenómenos meteorológicos pueden ser cada vez mas parte del paisaje del común de los próximos mortales. Esta generación mía no lo verá, pero en cambio, será muy mal recordada por su desidia y lentitud.
HVV
FURTHER READING AND REFERENCES
(*) update section. Excerpted from European Commission proposes new framework to decarbonise gas markets and promote hydrogen - Climate Action
(published 17 December 2021 Press Release)
(*)The ICCP last assessment (AR5, the fifth one) of the situation, was held in a public presentation on October 2014 in Copenhagen under the format of Synthesis Report.
References:
(A) further several other sources about: https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-q-and-a-how-article-6-carbon-markets-could-make-or-break-the-paris-agreement
SR20: 2015 HOTTEST YEAR https://youtu.be/1kj3VuyDzhQ?t=26: Moreover, Feb 2016 indicted as warmest February in last 136 years, as data published by NASA’ GISS. The anomaly detected showed 1.35C increase upon their 1951-1980 average. In the graph attached, the average is plotted since then. One salient issue is that anomaly concentrates on North: Russia, Arctic and North America. Surf at: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87691
(Published in LinkedIn 0n May 2016)
Post A: ARE WE ALL IN PERIL?
(A Quarterly recap about the Paris Climate Deal progress published in LinkedIn & Facebook on last April 2016)
http://climateanalytics.org/latest
outlook of the world energy. Consult Intl Energy Agency
they edit reports which explores the potential energy futures that lie ahead,
Bibliography and References
- Before CoP25 the last climate summit took place in NY, USA on Sep 23rd under the name "Global Climate Action" (https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/un-climate-summit-2019.shtml) It included young Greta Thunberg speech at the UN podium, after sailing two weeks from Plymouth, GB to NY, USA. A large number of positive initiatives were launched to tap the GW.
- As of today a Power plant can generate electricity by using combinations (Energy Matrix) of the following sources, depending on the availability of the natural conditions:
Solar
Eolic
Biomass
Hydropower
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Waste
Geothermal or Aerothermal
(A) Consult article by Saleem Van Groenou "Climate and Earth Outreach" Program Manager at: https://blog.google/products/earth/new-public-energy-tool-reduce-emissions/
(B) For better or worse, awareness of the GW is rising
rapidly. Every previous Summit has been preceded by citizen protests
NOTE. This article is based on "The next generation challenge" (published on this same blog by Jul 2018) by this same author. Update: Nov 2019 and Feb 2020