The race of races ever is about to begin
https://ecojobssiglo21.blogspot.com/2018/10/biosphere-salvation-race-of-races.html
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| This one can't be the winner for God's sake! |
Today, in the year 2020 it started a definitive counter clock race, the
race of races ever in History; an intense and extreme one to halt
man-induced over emissions of hazardous gasses to the troposphere. It is
a historic planetarium effort to curb the Earth's global average
temperature anomaly at the planet surface. (a) A Global Warming that
mostly every scientist blame to the excess GHG cumulated in the
troposphere.
(original from Feb 2020, updates: April 2020/August & November 2020, August 2021)
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| By IMBA prof. J. Hugo Von Veschler, Green Strategy contributor and reasercher |
Just 50 years later, the Race for Space between the USA and URSS begun: On April 12, 1961, the Soviets obtained another spectacular victory with the successful flight of Yuri Gagarin, the first person to fly in space. After returning to Earth, Gagarin was celebrated as an international hero. Gagarin beat the first American, Alan Shepard, into space by less than a month. Shepard's flight took place in May.
During the next thirty-year period, the world will attend the most dramatic, harsh, expensive and runaway race ever made in History. It consists of replacing fossil-origin sources with renewables ones to generate 'green' electricity for the Industry, homeplaces and transport uses. This is generally referred now as to "zero-net carbon emission" to replace the 'decarbonisation process of the Earth', a misleading label since carbon is key to life creation (see carbon cycle further on)
Whoever winner of the race may be, it is irrelevant yet to tackle carbon emissions to the troposphere
for halting Global Warming.
for halting Global Warming.
And this is precisely what really matters here, lives, i.e., the Biosphere salvation.
Unfortunately, whilst that universal objective was in the process of approval, the Earth surface average temperature was increasing almost one ºC degree, thus breaking up the target by half.
Since then scientists have been repeatedly warning about: the Earth's surface temperature rises much quicker than anticipated. Scientific evidence presented by NASA and some other organisations revealed today that since record hottest 2016 every consecutive year became warmer than previous one.
Consequently, the universal global warming objective was reformulated accordingly both in the temperature level (1.5 ºC limit) and, in reference to the new deadline (2050 instead), thus activating the starting pistol of the race. (b) Hoesung Lee, Climate Champion, chairman of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) said in October 2018 that the reviewed objective would become attainable "if politicians enact measure to dramatically cut carbon dioxide emissions." He has writen that:
Humankind is directly concerned for winning that race right before excess warming might collapse the entire Biosphera. In particular, Heads of States and Governments play a clue role here. Because should they stay inactive there will be no race at all. Which of those governments are of capital importance to attain the Global Warming target? "G20 countries" ones are.
They as a whole concentrate about 3/4 of CO2 world emissions to the troposphere whereas 7 countries alone produce nearly 66 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. and 3 of these, account with half of the world emissions (China, the United States and India). The planet's future will be shaped by what these top carbon polluters do about the heat-trapping gases blamed for global warming. (c)
Private, Public and mixed sectors, Institutions or, Organisations plus a myriad of persons are outstanding participants in this race too. Besides, there are thousands of small and medium initiatives which Civil Society and individuals advocates. This is a huge effort, highly necessary yet fully insufficient should large emmitters slammed the door to it.
In terms of funding this race, billionaire resources to participate in the race are deemed necessary, what mainly the largest emitters could afford. Winning the race in date (2050) will translate into one triumphal statement:
The finish line of this racetrack
A race as such can only be won should this global target about warming is attained:
“2ºC on the Earth surface, as average limit variation all over
within the century, effective since 2020’s the latest”
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| 195 chief of States and Governments support that objective in December 2015, (Paris CoP21) |
Unfortunately, whilst that universal objective was in the process of approval, the Earth surface average temperature was increasing almost one ºC degree, thus breaking up the target by half.
Since then scientists have been repeatedly warning about: the Earth's surface temperature rises much quicker than anticipated. Scientific evidence presented by NASA and some other organisations revealed today that since record hottest 2016 every consecutive year became warmer than previous one.
Consequently, the universal global warming objective was reformulated accordingly both in the temperature level (1.5 ºC limit) and, in reference to the new deadline (2050 instead), thus activating the starting pistol of the race. (b) Hoesung Lee, Climate Champion, chairman of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) said in October 2018 that the reviewed objective would become attainable "if politicians enact measure to dramatically cut carbon dioxide emissions." He has writen that:
Analysis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) clearly shows us that global emissions need to be reduced to net-zero
within the next few decades to avoid a dangerous increase in global
temperatures. The coronavirus pandemic is resulting in a drop in emissions this
year, but that came at an unacceptable human and economic cost – and there are
already signs that emissions are rebounding as economies reopen.
Moreover, as CNN, "the world will need to
reach zero net carbon emissions sometime between about 2030 and 2050"
otherwise, "phasing out fossil fuels over time".
One of the most eminent scientists of the global
warming is Sir Robert T. Watson. He has been Chair or co-chair
of other international scientific assessments, including the IPCC Working Group
II, the United Nations Environment Programme/World Meteorological Organization
(UNEP/WMO), and the UNEP Global Biodiversity Assessment, Professor of
Environmental Sciences; Director of Strategic Development, Tyndall at
The University of East Anglia".
He said:
The 2°C (3.6º F) temperature target, the threshold for the world to avoid the worst effects of climate change could be reached as soon as 2050
He said:
The 2°C (3.6º F) temperature target, the threshold for the world to avoid the worst effects of climate change could be reached as soon as 2050
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| The Berkeley University California report on 2018 temperature |
They as a whole concentrate about 3/4 of CO2 world emissions to the troposphere whereas 7 countries alone produce nearly 66 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. and 3 of these, account with half of the world emissions (China, the United States and India). The planet's future will be shaped by what these top carbon polluters do about the heat-trapping gases blamed for global warming. (c)
Private, Public and mixed sectors, Institutions or, Organisations plus a myriad of persons are outstanding participants in this race too. Besides, there are thousands of small and medium initiatives which Civil Society and individuals advocates. This is a huge effort, highly necessary yet fully insufficient should large emmitters slammed the door to it.
In terms of funding this race, billionaire resources to participate in the race are deemed necessary, what mainly the largest emitters could afford. Winning the race in date (2050) will translate into one triumphal statement:
to make this world to become a "low-carbon place to live in"
Notwithstanding, as everyone knows, Carbon is key to support life and death on Earth as seen in the "Carbon Cycle" flow chart by NASA here below. So, Carbon is certainly not the enemy, but the uneven alteration of it, rather. Carbon is otherwise a crucial element we all need to take good care about.
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| This diagram of the fast carbon cycle shows the movement of carbon between land, atmosphere, and oceans. |
The main obstacles to achieving the finish line in 2050
A cause-effect relationship between cumulation of CO2 in the troposphere and the man-induced emissions has been long established by scientists to explain the alteration of the Cycle. NASA (+) wrote about: Today, changes in the carbon cycle are happening because of people. We perturb the carbon cycle by burning fossil fuels and clearing land.The USA Agency also wrote in their recent Carbon report:
Without human interference, the carbon in fossil fuels would leak slowly into the atmosphere through volcanic activity over millions of years in the slow carbon cycle. By burning coal, oil, and natural gas, we accelerate the process, releasing vast amounts of carbon (carbon that took millions of years to accumulate inside the Planet) into the atmosphere every year. By doing so, we move the carbon from the slow cycle to the fast cycle. In 2009, humans released about 8.4 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel.
Three issues which may hinder the achievement of the Global Warming target:
Issue 1. Poverty and Extreme Poverty:
Nearly half of the world earns $5,50 a day whereas extreme poverty is suffered by 700 million people who earn almost $2 a day (As The world Bank report 2018) To the year 2030 this situation will subsist as the Bank reported in 2015. (d) If 'climate change' is worsening the immediate consequence will be a drop of food croppings both in volume and quality. Particularly, the agriculture sector working force will be affected in underdeveloped regions. Moreover, consequences derived from desertification and/or devastation of plantations will raise unemployment. Besides, unemployment is progressively rising as a result of the gradual closing of power plants and coal mines. Such conjunction of devastating climate and poverty rates will create a vicious circle of drivers (HVV)
TA: Poverty rate is largely depending on climate change in terms of their food procurement.
Issue 2. Investments in renewable resources
What is the horizon for huge investments in renewable sources, like eolic, solar ones, etc.? In the BCC Research prospects, they estimated in July 2019 that the renewable market value would evolute as follows:
"The global market for renewable energy (excluding biofuels) should growth from $636.1 billion in 2018 to reach $855.2 billion by 2023 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% for the period of 2018-2023." (e)
(The Global market value here comprises Technologies, Supplies and Power generation needs. Both Actual and Forecast)
On the other hand, BLOOMBERG tracks the investments on renewable at both world and country level. This information in particular and the general information about investments in renewable can be further explored by surfing in this other author's article:
https://ecojobssiglo21.blogspot.com/2019/03/is-there-money-enough-to-clear-up.html
TA: Such a trend of the investments volume on renewables is clearly upward one. However, renewable plus nuclear can hardly match the consumption of natural gas in the historic analysis up to 2018.
Issue 3. The World's consumption of energy and coal
In 2018, according to EIA, (USA Energy Information Agency) global energy consumption increased to twice of the average consumption in 2010. The increased energy consumption is driven by a robust global economy and increasing needs of heating and cooling in some parts of the world. As per EIA, the world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050. Most of this growth comes from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and this growth is focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, especially in Asian regions."(BCC Research website feb 2019) |
| Coal-fired plant, Niederaussem, Germany. 2018 |
TA:Such a demand for energy is closely depending on the population growth rate. At the current trend and different scenarios, most of the future consumption will still be furnished by fossil fuels, natural gas mostly.
requisites to participate are a Green strategy and a Funding thorough commitment
'Decarbonization' of the human economy-related activities by using the carbon footprint protocol to select and track elements, products and processes is the ultimate requisite to help the race to be won and the warming objectives to be met.
For instance, several coal-fired plants are to be dismantled thus pulling miners into unemployment in a short period of time. Conversely, new jobs are to be generated. Of which kind? Mostly inside the third sector basically since miners could hardly be recycled to work in the new technology of renewables, perhaps. The industrial and manufacturing sector will probably experience an intense growth. Will the SMB labour force benefit? Or just the industrial macro conglomerates will make it?
As of
today, many European countries exhibit an impressive record of achievements as regards the conversion of fossil fuels into green ones. More and more, the private sector and public ones are implementing large investment projects in renewables more than ever before. The example is the offshore UK North Sea Multibillion-pound Hornsea Project.Bear on mind that England showed how coal-dependent the country was in the 1700s and 1800s. To the extent that it was able to extract a volume of coal equivalent to 60% of the world's production by midst XIX century. That was the clue for the industrial steady growth of the country's economy positioning it as the largest industrial and navigation international power of the century.
In Asia, authorities from Chine, first CO2 emitter basically due to a fast industrialization process at all levels, is now leading the ranking in the volume of investment on clean energy, well ahead of the second one investor, USA.
Similarly, Japan builds large combined cycle installations to weak its high dependence from nuclear Plants to generate electricity to its overcrowded small territory. (See photo here below)
Efforts to mitigate the emissions volume are however not yet under the character of emergency.(i) The problem behind emissions off control lies in the current amount of CO2 already accumulated in the atmosphere. It is going beyond the limit 400 pppm many scientists estimated as the threshold of emissions. They contend that a higher volume beyond would intensify climate changes on the Earth. (h) Besides, some of them believe the situation could not reverse in short future.
Investment analysts have said, however, that additional 12 to 15 trillion are deemed necessary to offset the carbon excess emissions volume. To bear on mind that dependence from fossil fuels to generate electricity is still over 75% in global terms.
What is this ammount allocated for? Broadly said, to finance installations and equipments to shift away from fossil fuels to generate electricity.
Let us briefly comment the situation of the race in the EU territories. European Commission new Executive President Frau Ursula Von der Leyen announced last December 2020 an unprecedented financial program to attain the limit target of warming: the EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL. (Inspired in the USA president F. D. Roosevelt's "The new Deal" to recover from The Great Depression, another spectacular race).
The GREEN DEAL is a "€1tn, 10-year plan to reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% compared with 1990" However, "commission itself estimates that Europe needs €260bn annually to achieve its 2030 climate and energy targets – more than double the amount on offer"
(The Guardian) (g)
Moreover, how to come up with multibillionaire
investment which are needed to acomplish the GW objective to save it? There is yet no implementation plans.
On the other side, new administrative regulations and juridical security frames
would have to be implemented for private investors in Renewables to risk
their funds in a very long term horizon.
For a more detailed information about this kind of investments, please consult this blog article "Is there enough money to clean up?"
The classic economics science as we all know begins progressively dying itself in green. And whether or not the current socio-economic frame will resist a shock of this size in its basic structures is a subjects that only economists can bring up to discussion.
Similarly, Japan builds large combined cycle installations to weak its high dependence from nuclear Plants to generate electricity to its overcrowded small territory. (See photo here below)
Efforts to mitigate the emissions volume are however not yet under the character of emergency.(i) The problem behind emissions off control lies in the current amount of CO2 already accumulated in the atmosphere. It is going beyond the limit 400 pppm many scientists estimated as the threshold of emissions. They contend that a higher volume beyond would intensify climate changes on the Earth. (h) Besides, some of them believe the situation could not reverse in short future.
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| Japanesse combined cycle colossal power plant |
A strategy which calls upon for a huge amount of funds to be allocated. More Administrations and Governments have understood the clue role that investing in ‘clean’ sources of energies may play. The UN global aim is to halt/downsize the planet’s excessive fossil fuels consumption. In whatever price situation of the crude oil prices at OPEP+ there will be reasons to spur private and officials investments in solar farms, aeolian parks, biogas, and so on. Officially, almost 7 trillion dollars are already spent on clean energy generation during 2011-2020 decade. BLOMBERG NFC is a reliable source of analysis and tracking of that investment picture as of today.
Investment analysts have said, however, that additional 12 to 15 trillion are deemed necessary to offset the carbon excess emissions volume. To bear on mind that dependence from fossil fuels to generate electricity is still over 75% in global terms.
What is this ammount allocated for? Broadly said, to finance installations and equipments to shift away from fossil fuels to generate electricity.
Let us briefly comment the situation of the race in the EU territories. European Commission new Executive President Frau Ursula Von der Leyen announced last December 2020 an unprecedented financial program to attain the limit target of warming: the EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL. (Inspired in the USA president F. D. Roosevelt's "The new Deal" to recover from The Great Depression, another spectacular race).
The GREEN DEAL is a "€1tn, 10-year plan to reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% compared with 1990" However, "commission itself estimates that Europe needs €260bn annually to achieve its 2030 climate and energy targets – more than double the amount on offer"
(The Guardian) (g)
For a more detailed information about this kind of investments, please consult this blog article "Is there enough money to clean up?"
The classic economics science as we all know begins progressively dying itself in green. And whether or not the current socio-economic frame will resist a shock of this size in its basic structures is a subjects that only economists can bring up to discussion.  |
| In the images, lake Stamberg am See in Munich and the greek city Skopelos as few examples of biodiversity which must be preserved. |
“Humankind is facing two major global problems in this century: climate change
and energy security. Renewable energies are the key for the solution of both
problems as they are carbon free, abundant and sustainable. The proper
combination of decentralised local renewable power generation and large solar
power plants in the deserts has the potential to provide all the energy that will be
needed. The precondition for this energy revolution is both a Smart Grid to
manage the volatility of decentralised renewable power generation and a Super
Grid to link large renewable power plants with the energy users over long
distances.”
Prof. Dr. Peter Höppe
Head of Geo Risks Research, Corporate Climate Centre, Munich Re
Bibliography, References and Notes about this article, “BIOSPHERE SALVATION race of races”
Link of this article:
https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/9023843032436110049/9098448015185633174
b) Since out of the 2oC’s
threshold (the end-century global target for GW agreed in the Paris December
2015 talks), its first C degree has already been achieved as UNEP/WMO recently
reported. While covenants were laying down the target, reality had already
devoured half of that. Once again, we are late, very much so. Bearing in mind that an
additional 0.5ºC variation seems too near, such global end-century
target would then show a bias of half-century in advance.
c) Out of these, just 7 countries are responsible for about 2/3 of the total emissions volume. These are China, USA, India, Russia, Japan, Canada and EU all.Source: Union of concerned Scientists. Please surf https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions
a) Besides, studies from reputed scientific
organisations (as Goddard Institute for Space Studies by NASA) alert about
localised warming episodes in terms of temperature variations compared with a
baseline average. North America and the Arctic showed the biggest temperature
anomalies ever occurred (Feb 2006). Surf updates: http://climateanalytics.org/latest
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87691c) Out of these, just 7 countries are responsible for about 2/3 of the total emissions volume. These are China, USA, India, Russia, Japan, Canada and EU all.Source: Union of concerned Scientists. Please surf https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions
e) Source: https://www.bccresearch.com/market-research/energy-and-resources/renewable-energy-markets-report.html
f) Source: Please consult Saleem Van Groenou "Climate and Earth Outreach" Program Manager published Apr 11, 2018 in: https://blog.google/products/earth/new-public-energy-tool-reduce-emissions/
g) The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/07/eu-green-deal-greenwash-ursula-von-der-leyen-climate
h) The estimated milestone of 400 pppm was reached on May 2013 as reported by National Geographic. The current volume of CO2 measured with the scientific methodology of general acceptance ed up to nearly 420 pppm this year. In 1960 it reached 360 pppm.
Among the most dramatic influences of human activities on a global scale is the remarkable increase of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are expected to surpass 420 parts per million by volume by the middle of the 21st century, with potentially profound consequences for global climate and agricultural patterns. It is thought that the oceans, as a great reservoir of carbon dioxide, will ameliorate this consequence of human activities to some degree. However, ocean acidification due to the absorption of carbon dioxide is an emerging environmental problem. (Britannica)
i) One of the last opportunities to tackle the urgencies were lost in the last CoB25. See outcome of the meeting in:
j) These findings are part of the International Energy Agency’s latest assessment of global energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions for 2018. The Global Energy & CO2 Status Report provides
a high-level and up-to-date view of energy markets, including latest
available data for oil, natural gas, coal, wind, solar, nuclear power,
electricity, and energy efficiency. Published July 2019.
(+) NASA best report scientifically approached about carbon in full details. Thouroughly recommended
This Article's update from August 2021
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), was the first large greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world, and remains the biggest.[1] It was launched in 2005 to fight global warming and is a major pillar of EU energy policy.[2] Under the 'cap and trade' principle, a maximum (cap) is set on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by all participating installations. "Allowances" for emissions are then auctioned off or allocated for free, and can subsequently be traded. Installations must monitor and report their CO2 emissions, ensuring they hand in enough allowances to the authorities to cover their emissions. If emission exceeds what is permitted by its allowances, an installation must purchase allowances from others. Conversely, if an installation has performed well at reducing its emissions, it can sell its leftover credits. This allows the system to find the most cost-effective ways of reducing emissions without significant government intervention.
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