Tracking the Paris Climate Deal (2015 to the 2019 NY meeting) part 2

Tracking the Paris Climate Deal (2015 to the 2019 NY meeting)

  CoP25 or, the end begins Part 2

(September 2016) The PCD – Paris Climate Deal – that took place last December 2015 was indeed a historic planetarium effort to curb the Earth’s global average temperature variation; the principal intention expressed by 195 world’s leaders who attended the Paris summit was to tackle the Global Warming by reducing human-induced CO2 emissions, which is a scientific cause-effect relationship. The target of such downsizes set up by the PCD:

 “2ºC on the Earth surface, as average limit variation all over within the century, effective since the 2020’s the latest”

 It took several years of UNFCCC meetings to reach COP21 in Paris (launched in 2007 Bali meeting and preceded by COP 17 in Durban, COP18 in Doha, COP19 in Warsaw and, COP20 in Lima). In Bali 2007 meeting it was agreed that: “the central task of the AWG-KP was to decide the emission reduction commitments of industrialised countries after the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period expired in 2012.”

In January 2016 we started tracking the PCD on a regular basis by compiling information about the problem definition: The Paris Climate Deal progresses. Original Progress Report. Quarterly review by IMBA prof. Von VESCHLER

(OPR3) The core of the global warming is excessive fossil fuel-fired power plants. These emit several gases to the atmosphere, like the CO2 which, stores around the globe at troposphere altitude for years and years. ("The troposphere is the layer of the atmosphere closest to the earth's surface where the weather takes place") How the warming is producing, then? It all happens within a fine layer of an average 17000 meters thick composed of water vapour in 99%. GHG's like CO2, trap the excess radiation heat instead of letting it going back to space. Such reduction is progressively achieved by means of stabilising/downgrading the volume of fossil fuels (coal, crude oil and natural gas) now used to generate electricity; striving for increasing Nuclear and RE (renewable energy) usage, instead.

In September 2016 Scientists have circumscribed the action in the following way:

v  ·Increasing the deployment of low-carbon energy for electricity generation -currently non-fossil fuel electricity generation is 30 per cent -16 per cent from hydropower, 5 per cent from renewables and 11 per cent from nuclear power.

v  ·Increasing the energy efficiency in the housing and industrial sector.

v  ·Promoting the electrification of vehicles.

v  ·Including on-site renewable energy systems in existing and new buildings.

 

All of that is simply because out of the 2ºC’s threshold upwards variation (agreed in the Paris December 2015 talks as the end-century global aim), its first C degree has already been reached as UNEP/WMO recently reported. While covenants were setting up the target, reality had already devoured half of that. Once again, we are late, very much so. Bearing in mind that an additional 0.5ºC variation seems to be already on the sight, such global end-century target would then show a bias of half-century in advance.

One of the most eminent scientists of the global warming is Sir Robert T. Watson: "He has been Chair or co-chair of other international scientific assessments, including the IPCC Working Group II, the United Nations Environment Programme/World Meteorological Organization (UNEP/WMO), and the UNEP Global Biodiversity Assessment, Professor of Environmental Sciences; Director of Strategic Development, Tyndall at the University of East Anglia". “The 2°C (3.6º F) temperature target, the the threshold for the world to avoid the worst effects of climate change, could be reached as soon as 2050.

 

 The excess CO2 being stored in the troposphere is the driving

for a temperature variation  called Global Warming, which,

in turns set the conditions for extraordinaire weather

events coined under the term 'Climate Change'

Hottest days are coming nearer, the 2ºC variation scenario is on sight.

Tools designed to battle the GW since 2007 in Bali has not yielded sufficient outcome. On top of that, the PCD moves like a turtle on stones: this is their target picture as of today, October 2016, comparing it with main emitters countries, in light of our research at the global weather tracking publications: 

 

to be continued

By IMBA prof. J. H. Von Veschler, environment senior contributor
November 2019