Since nov 2015 this technical Blog provides equity research and checked information concerning the PCD, Biosphere quality and its Climate Emergency. Sources brought about are Technical /Scientific Databases, official statistics, Academic publications and Climate-related publications. This blog creation is brought to you by IMBA Prof. J. Hugo Von Veschler (director@climatemerg.eu)
Once again the world's leaders did not get agreement as to how
CO2 emissions should be reduced/set off by 2050
How to reach the global target set up in Paris last 2015 is still a matter of discussion. That target called upon for holding global temperature anomaly below 2ºC by end of century. Which means reaching almost 50% reduction in volume of emissions by 2050 to get the target threshold. The large obstacle to achieve it is the high dependence on fossil fuels to generate electricity. In the case of EU this is the picture, not too different from many other large economies' pictures:
To phase out fossil fuels to generate electricity can hardly be speeded up. Around 80% of current energy generation is still coming out from the fossil fuels (coal, gas, etc.). Consecuently, Producing energy without burning fossil fuels (decarbonizing the production of energy) will be critically important. (1)
Silesia miners in 2018. (Source: The WhashingtonPost on line)
minerSecondsetback: What to do with the current huge reserves and deposits of gas, coil and oil still available in the planet? In the EU there are about 42 regions highly dependable of the fossil fuel exploitaton, just like Silesia and the Rhur basin. Thousand of workers income is fully dependable of that industry.
Third setback: Where funds would come from to make such a convertion? See our LINKEDIN report on this matter (A). With regards funding the projects, there seems to be a positive picture, as UNEP calculated it in 2012:
The new UNEP report demonstrates that a transition to a green economy is possible by investing 2% of global GDP per year (currently about US 1.3 trillion) between now and 2050 in a green transformation of key sectors, including agriculture, buildings, energy, fisheries, forests, manufacturing, tourism, transport, water and waste management. However, such investments must be spurred by national and international policy reforms.(B)
In this ocassion the Italian government has demanded an amount of 180000 million US$ a year to effectively reach the targeted averaged temperature of the planet. Out of the 2ºC aim, one degree was already achieved in 2015 while the Paris Climate Deal was on progress. On the other hand, scientists alert that the second degree could well be reached by 2050, instead of 2099 (1) should actions are not kirk start. And one of the most critical one is to reduce level of emission down to 50% in 30 years time. This is the main subject proponents of the Katowice summit have delayed
until the next meeting to be held in Chile by December 2019. Before this meeting ONU will call for another summit in September 2019 in order to discuss this situation.
Do the needful to get it is the lemma to tackle GW
In Poland, climate talks will not come to a desired end, therefore, more time is deemed necessary to finalise the PCD’s rulebook as forecasted in Paris in 2015.
KATOWICE OUTCOME: Deceptive as the previous summit results (Bonn November 2017) I really wonder whether or not large organizations are effectively contributing to their nationals plans to implement PCA by the end of this year in Poland Summit. It is the last year to do it. To accomplish such an obligation, organisations should first re-orient their corporate/business area strategy whichever their business object be the one. The Green economy is the main aim in the years to come. On its implementation lay down the last opportunities to decarbonize electricity supply at planetarium scale. Shall Green Economy receive the green light to kick-start the deep transformation some of the old dated market economy practices so urgently need? KATOWICE summit reflects the complex puzzle of interest and a huge amount of money that are the major obstacles. Read about in the UNEP official document: https://lnkd.in/dJryBSw
In this kind of planetary meeting, the 200 participant countries exhibit their significant differences in terms of development and richness. There are developed countries (G8 members), then the least developed countries and at the end, the developing ones, a large majority.
At the same time, all these nations split between mainly liable of CC/GW (larger emitters of CO2 emission, as G20s) living together with medium and small emitters; and the worst of all, there are victim nations with several degree of effects. At the end of the chain, there are fully innocent countries which, just receive the nocive effects from someone else’s emission. Like the Kiribati archipelago in the Pacific ocean equator, (a country which will soon become covered by the rise of marine water level.)
Furthermore, there are countries that still keep down large deposits of fossil fuels onto their subsoils, as RKS, USA, Germany, Poland,
Australia, Russia, etc, which should be shut down in short time. On the other hand, have those countries with almost no fuels but large conditions to generate most of the electricity they need from eolic ranches and solar farms as Chile, Spain and Portugal, for instance.
In reference to the Biosphere protection, countries sensibility it varies between two poles: USA on the right, whose president refuses the anthropogenic cause of GW/CC. And Ireland and Norway on the left, whose government has targeted year 2050 to become a low-carbon society while Ireland would transform into a ‘decarbonized economy’ (the first Green one, in other words) bearing on mind Norway currently exploit vast reserves of oil located down the North Sea.
Sea drill oil platform in the North Sea of Norway
Right in the middle, we find the giant Chinese economy which produces the biggest volume of CO2 all over along with vast reserves of coal. Noteworthy, China is heavily investing and spending on renewables, nuclear and hydropower sources of energy, much more than any other country in the world.
On these hands lay down the last opportunities to decarbonize electricity supply at planetarium scale. Shall Green Economy receive the green light to kick-start the deep transformation some of the old dated market economy practices so urgently need?
A large puzzle of interest and a huge amount of money are the major obstacles.
What follows here down is the August 2022 review and update of the ORIGINAL ARTICLE published on December 5th, 2018 in LinkedIn's authors page. Such article was published under the title Katowice on the focus of the Biosphere.
G/7 facing economic recession this second semester 2022 and beginning 2023
Industrial prices to generate electricity sent an early warning about. And effectively, end of July this has appeared in the USA economy as a stagflation signals: low growth together with high inflation. UK is another victim. Whilst, France almost reached the technical recession in 2nd Q 2022, however unexpected growth of exports and tourism income gave 0.5% raise of its 2nd quarterly GDP.
In an effort to halt inflation due to demand expenses, central banks started increasing interest rates or, simply, the price of the money is getting expensive. If this is too rapid, the danger is an economy contraction. It happened in the States driven the country into a technical recession after GDP set bak for the second consecutive quarter this year.However if employment is solidly and strongly moving ahead, the picture could be different. In the USA the employment rate is firm now.
Very deceptive news to the biosphere, bearing on mind that the ONU has recently estimated that cost of halting temperature anomaly (global warming or climate emergency) by 2050 might reach several trillions dollars.
credit: El País online newspaper Spain July 2022
Cost and supply of Natural gas stressed prices in 2021 (and so it did in 2022)
New unexpected actors in the scene of the Biosphere protection plans and activities today: demand, temperature and war
Industrial prices to generate the electricity for population are skyrocketing. Surprisingly, such rising does not refer much to renewables solar and wind prices,yet to the fossil fuels trio retailer prices are on the clouds. Every other day natural gas, diesel/gasoline and coil bring to consumer's expectancies into a grey panorama almost all over the world.
Causes?
"Large
parts of the northern hemisphere are baking under extreme heat, a direct
manifestation of rising global temperatures. In the UK, thermometers could hit 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit)
for the first time ever. European countries are suffering from devastating
drought and wildfires, yet burning more coal to
weather its standoff with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. In China, deadly floods are the
latest nightmare, even as heat waves threaten millions of people". (Bloomberg jul 2022)
Heat waves affecting the northern hemisphere countries this summer time. In China, 1 billion people suffer temperatures over and above 40ºC.
Pedestrians cover up amid high temperature in Chongqing, on July 13.
Photographer: He Penglei/China News Service/Getty Images
A militarist war is happening since 4 months ago right in the middle of Europe-Asia between OTAN and Russia (Ukrain vs Puting in popular slang). Consequently, an economic war opened in parallel, thus producing economic side effects as boycotts of G7 banking and trade operations with the "aggressor". In the energy supplying side, shortcuts from Russian natural gas sold to the EU in reaction to these, are shocking population regarding cold perspectives to the next winter.
Side effects? The main and most unexpected and terrible is the coming back of coal use alternative to gas price and supply chain problems. China mines of coal never stopped, while EU is seriously considering to re open coal mines (Rhur and Katowice basins) and reactive the nuclear energy, not labelled as "no green source". Not to mention France's increases of their main source, nuclear plants though less than half of the 60 plants are no operating.Final results? Sad new for the Biosphere. All the money rivers flowing from OTAN to the belic Ukrainian government as 'defensive' weapons are indeed subtracted from the global effort to halt the Climate Emergency in the EU confine by 2050, a budget of hundreds of millions. It is the Race to Zero mobilisation of planetarian funds:
It mobilises a coalition of leading net zero initiatives, representing 1,049 cities, 67 regions, 5,235 businesses, 441 of the biggest investors, and 1,039 Higher Education Institutions. These ‘real economy’ actors join 120 countries in the largest ever alliance
committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 at the latest.
Collectively these actors now cover nearly 25% global CO2 emissions and over 50% GDP. (https://unfccc.int/climate-action/race-to-zero-campaign)
Fuels fossil vs race to zero
UK government released ireport saying the UK policy as regards race to zero, is to continiou investing in fossil fuels their terrotory account with and contribute with developing renewable energies as well.This due to 2 factors: the stagflation picture unveling in UK and, the prices of energy
update July August 2022 ended here
(What follows is a Document Update written in Jan 2022 to cover beginning of 2020 till Glasgow event, end of 2021) See Part 3 of the "Tracking the Paris Climate Deal"
This is a short recap of 5 relevant outcomes achieved in years 2020 and 2021 as regards progress toward the planetarium aim: the threshold of upwards temperature variation of earth surface kept in 2
ºC. A threshold as such require to phase out the usage of fossil fuels
to generate electricity in the next 12 years. It is the so called Race to Zero aim.
I)Glasgow COB26, the contractual end of implementation of 5 years lap couldn't be set.
UN COP's leaders expected to end it up in Glasgow by December 2021.
Outcome of the summit was however deceptive since the clue matter of
trading and compensating pay per emissions was not even raised during
the sessions. It's about the Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement's
Rules-book, which rules on the carbon markets and general
cooperation.(A) It is the last part pending of agreement to be
incorporate to the Paris Agreement so as to make it fully operative.
During COP25 Madrid this matter wasn't agreed either. Too much still
hanging on further meeting over and over again.
In other words, These proposals
represent an important step in Europe's decarbonisation path and will
help to deliver the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at
least 55% by 2030, and becoming climate neutral by 2050. (*)
Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal, Dr. Frans Timmermans, said: “Europe
needs to turn the page on fossil fuels and move to cleaner energy
sources. This includes replacing fossil gas with renewable and low
carbon gases, like hydrogen." (*)
II) EU's public opinion has blamed G20 as the main guilty of the global warming, with special mention to the BRICS group.The
G20 clearly identified as responsible of the 3/4 of global hazardous
emissions, considering they account with 88% of Planet wealth.
Therefore, for the the first time ever, they have agreed to an amount of funds to finance clean energies
progress:
In the 2021 G20 Rome summit "leaders of the world’s largest
economies highlighted their commitment to boosting investment in clean
energy technologies. In the G20 Rome Leaders’ Declaration,
they encouraged the continued updating of the IEA’s Sustainable
Recovery Tracker, which measures how much of the spending mobilised by
governments in response to the Covid-19 crisis is going towards clean
energy. The Sustainable Recovery Tracker was launched in July as a key
IEA contribution to Italy’s Presidency of the G20 this year" Source: https://www.iea.org/news/g20-leaders-recognise-iea-s-work-on-tracking-sustainable-recoveries
Despite
the importance of this official disclosure from G20, scientists and
analysts pointed out that G20's CONTRIBUTION exhibits 2 problems: a) it
is 40% of that is needed, and b) most of the G20's funds destination is
to the most advanced economies.
As the The New York Times wrote in October 2021: Even if all countries achieve the targets they set for themselves in the Paris Agreement, average global temperatures are on track to rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius
by the end of the century. Reaching the target would require big
polluting countries to strengthen those targets, or Nationally
Determined Contributions, as they are known, by committing to reduce
emissions much faster between now and 2030.
The G20 leaders committed “to take further action this decade” and to update their plans as necessary.
III) Price of electricity increases 2 to 3 fold in 2nd semester 2021. The Wholesale Base-load Electricity tracking tool(https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/default/files/quarterly_report_on_european_electricity_markets_q1_2021_final.pdf) shows prices for the EU countries in first Q 2021 well below 50 EUR MWh. Since then, these prices have not stopped rising, to the the extent to overpass 100 units in several countries by end 2021. Electricity prices going up to the clouds, along with increase of emissions es ever before.
One of this rise increase drive is the booming price of natural gas from Rusia.
(See Bloomberg report in: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-30/europe-has-never-paid-so-much-for-power-as-2021-costs-hit-record)
IV) Price and supply of Natural gas stressed prices in 2021.Europe’s energy crunch was a result of shortages of natural gas just as
demand rebounded following 2020’s lock-downs. The crisis was also
aggravated by lower than normal wind speeds and nuclear power outages
that have strained power grids, forcing the region’s energy companies to
burn polluting fossil fuels. (As Bloomberg report hereabove cited)
Purchasing
prices of Natural Gas have largely increased in 2021in light of duopoly
of offer for EU: Russia and Algeria gaseoducts. High dependence of
several EU countries of coal mines (Silesia and Ruhr basin) together
with their increasing needs of imported natural gas and crude oil,
configurates a problematic energy matrix to reach a rapid netZero
emission in short terms. Bearing on mind that the 3 energy consumption
macrosegments in the EU are clearly % deficitaries in renewable (Actual
2016 and 2020 estimation of share as EU commission sources) :
Electricity 34%
Heating and cooling 46%
Transport 33%
Furthermore,
EU ETS prices, (the "pay per emit" mechanism in the EU) have increased
as well thus adding other price increase of electricity. As said the
energy crunch in EU seems far for being solved. Unless renewable and
nuclear energy may compete to substitute fossil supplying before 2050.
Several countries reopening coal power plants so as to counteract high price of electricity generation.
V) Hydrogen production techniques booming at all level.
Several qualities classes of H2 though cost/ton of the greenest
varieties still higher than other energy sources. Street car
manufacturer like Toyota, Hyundai, Mazda, Ford are shaking the car
industry by introducing to the market different types of new technology
of engines, electrics, hybrid, and Hydrogen base. Along with the banning
of fossil fuel after 2035, the EU is leading technologies to plant
networks of Service stations aimed to fuel the new electric car models.
Heavy transport as truck and trains started to operate on a reduce base
in EU and USA.
Besides, investigation also is opened to new other save and clean fuels
like low emissions gasoline, refined or "green diesel" just lije the one developed experiences for 2013 by TOYOTA, and bio fuels based on the Biogas.
source: General recap pppsx presentation by HVV
PART 5, 2045 green strategy vs. growing demand for fossil fuels
Katowice, (and coal) on the focus of the Biosphere (REVIEWED AND UPDATE IN may-aug 2022)
Crude
Oil. OPEC's prediction is still a demand increase as well as prices per
barrel. (100USD and raising for Brent barrel as of winter 2022) As CINCO DIAS, Oil will
continue being the largest source in the world's energy mix, yet its
relative importance would decrease. See DEMANDA DE PETROLEO DE LA OPEP
DE 2019 A 2045 Original Source: "statista.com"
Hydrogen. It
appears as the most important source of electricity generation, provided
that cost/ton be drastically reduced to compete in the market with
other sources. Currently it is around 5US$/ton with a progressive reduction till 2US$/ton to compite with other sources, not fossil one.
Nuclear. Countries as France , China and India
predict increase in number of nuclear new plants. Russia accounts with
2nd largest country as numer of nuclear plants. These countries also accounts with coal together they conform the BRICS club od economies under a intense development
This is a short recap of 5 relevant outcomes achieved in years 2020 and 2021 as regards progress toward the planetarium aim: the threshold of upwards temperature variation of earth surface kept in 2
ºC. A threshold as such require to phase out the usage of fossil fuels (petro, coal and natural gas)
to generate electricity. What also means industrial and developing economies making Sharp cuts on "fossil electriciy" if we all want to live with "green electriciy" since now.
It is the so called NetZero aim.
In other words, These proposals
represent an important step in Europe's decarbonisation path and will
help to deliver the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at
least 55% by 2030, and becoming climate neutral by 2050. (*)
It also means that by 2050 the NetZero target must have been attained. And the temperature anomaly is halted at the mark od 2 degree centigrades (average of temperature in the whole Esarth surphace)
new criteria of analysys for race to Zero, the intertarget to attain NETZERO in 2050 (info expoliated from https://www.climateaction.org/news/race-to-zero-campaign-updates-criteria-to-raise-the-bar-on-net-zero-deliver?
net is called because oceans absorb part of the CO2 from the atmosphere. Zero means that emission volume must decrease to cero from now to 2050 of much before.
in this regards, the general business environment of the targets achievements is progressevly becoming more turbulent as time goeas by. For example, two capital events are to begging influencing this changeable and alarming prospect for 2035 and 2050 subsequently
A) Natural resources as raw matters begun to agotarse in its original basins and mines and vetas since the beggining
B) Climate is not just an emergency, it is now becoming acceleratinf more tha proportional. Its a aritmetic deslizante media across the measurement of stations from all over the globe. data sheet are proceede by the UNCFF ofices. As any other media, composed it is formed by hihger than avarage and below it data. Therefore, there are territories and places whereby the temperature increases is well abouve 2 degrees for the first time
C)The climate emergency has already an estimation of damages and cost nedded to enderezar la situacion
Unchecked
climate change will cost the global economy $178 trillion: Deloitte
If global warming — which is already
costing the world more in severe storm damage, crop loss, health risks,
compromised travel and more — reaches around 3°C toward the century's end, the
toll on human lives could be significant, the consultancy said in its release,
timed to the high-profile World Economic Forum underway in Davos, Switzerland.
Plus, instead of investing in new,
value-adding innovations and infrastructure, the world's productive capital
would be channeled toward repairing climate damage, the report warned. (Source:
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries/ Spectra Newsletter, July 19th 2022)
D it si a war, and a race as well (see our article published in this blos under the head "A race to et etc therefore as any conclifc there are many fron batles oipened. UN decided to to put the civil population on arms to marcha agains the irresponsable emission. This mobilisation of persons and resources it was coined as A RACE TO ZERO EMISSION. More vibrant slogan, than the tedious statistic of the threshold of 2ºC as a media of the planet surface by end of 2050. More compelent ir RACE TO ZERO EMISSION, less technical or pedagoical mbut much more vibrant and mobilizant to get embarked in a war. Very clever, positive and most of all, effective. a HIPHUrra to mr Guterrez.. The origin of this slogans come from the UN agncy UNCF
E Regarding how much this war is gonna cost to our global pockets, nothing is still clearly put on the table. Exception is a sort of allianz of the financial sources under the name og Glasgow net zero. pero completely vague, for now on the soldier is up to them to run the money, time nd dedication not effective coins
F Frank press prediction in 1977, almost half a century later, the world gave reason to this early prediction Frank Press as a modern Nostradazmus warned presiddent Carter
F. Press starts the memo by laying out the science of the climate crisis as it was understood at the time.
Fossil fuel combustion has increased at an exponential rate over the
last 100 years. As a result, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is
now 12 percent above the pre-industrial revolution level and may grow to
1.5 to 2.0 times that level within 60 years. Because of the “greenhouse
effect” of atmospheric CO2 the increased concentration will induce a
global climatic warming of anywhere from 0.5 to 5°C.
These far-sighted assertions were in
line with the climate science that originated the previous decade, when
the US government funded major science agencies focused on space,
atmospheric and ocean science.Research produced for President Lyndon B Johnson in 1965 found
that billions of tons of “carbon dioxide is being added to the earth’s
atmosphere by the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas”.
the terrible results of such assertion was the weak reaction the first power in the world involved in so many armed conflict agains the terrorism. pitty for the world!
Note. Reemplazar por el El original pictogram de los goals del
desarrollo sostenible de la ONU queestá
alojado, en ingles, en G:/ A environmental management/CONTENTS
Uniting the
world to
tackle climate change.
06-18
November, 2022
\Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt
end of review and update of the ORIGINAL ARTICLE FROM DIC 2018. See original of Dec 2018 here below
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
The 300,000 inhabitants of the Polish city of Katowice, capital of the upper Silesia, stand right under the world's eyes as of now. They know that a universal political and economic game will play there a significant role in the Biosphere destiny.
Katowice city downtown
In Katowice, the Climate Change Conference -COP24- takes place to set up conditions under which all Heads of State and Heads of Government of the planet may set up strategies to tackle de Global Warming. It is the deadline set in the Paris Climate Deal in December 2015 for delivering implementation guidelines.
That Deal will kick-start next year turning green strategies into actions so as to keep global temperature mean below 2 degrees centigrade rise by the end of century. In 2015 one degree rise had been already produced.
It was not by chance that this city had been elected as home of the world summit to save the biosphere. In the surrounding mountings lay one of the largest reserves of coil, (130 million tons). Bear on mind that coil is a large CO2 emitter fossil fuel.
The mining industry has long been a source of pride and employment for generations of Silesians. For decades, its rich seams of hard, black coal were used to heat homes and provide electricity across Poland. (Czarek Sokolowski/Associated Press)
Experts say will require sharp cuts in carbon emissions that can only be achieved by ending coal-fired power plants in the coming decades.(The Washington Post)
What means shutting down coil mines in USA, China, India, and Australia for instance. Despite Polish government closed down mines, in recent years about 70 million tons were produced - 70% of the EU output - generating employment to between 80 and 100 thousand workers. Poland is still 80% dependent on this fuel to generate electricity, being the balance sourced by renewable energy.These figures are in average with those offered by the Union.
The point is to use them in the most efficient way and to have them in our energy mix and to work on reducing the pollution, the emissions,” said Michal Kurtyka, a senior official at Poland’s environment ministry who will chair the climate talks in Katowice. (The Washington Post)
These harmful emissions have reached now a non-return critical level above 400 pppm thus influencing the global warming. See graph of temperature anomaly.
much of the spending mobilised by
governments in response to the Covid-19 crisis is going towards clean
energy. The Sustainable Recovery Tracker was launched in July as a key
IEA contribution to Italy’s Presidency of the G20 this year" Source:
