Tracking the Paris Climate Deal (2015 to the 2019 NY meeting) Part 1

Tracking the Paris Climate Deal (2015 to the 2019 NY meeting)

CoP25 or, the end begins (Part 1)

Herebelow, you will find information background aimed to illustrate people about the COB 25 in Madrid (December 2019).

The following article was originally published on May 21th, “Day of the environment, 2016” in the contributor’s LINKEDIn page under the title “Climate scientists sounded the alarm”

SR26 LinkedIn. What are they waiting for? Regarding the Paris Climate Deal from December 2015, its ratification (to become legally bound to the deal) is the last step for it to become globally effective. In fact, 181 Countries, Governments and States have already signed it, although out of these 118 haven't ratified it, plus 16 states that have neither signed nor ratified. Interestingly, Russia and EU members have not yet ratified: they are blamed for being responsible for 19.63% out of global emissions. (database source: http://climateanalytics.org/)

What to do to stay below the limits, whichever be the one?: "the world will need to reach zero net carbon emissions sometime between about 2030 and 2050"(CNN) otherwise, “ phasing out fossil fuels over time”

By the time that article was posted, no one could have ever imagine that year 2016 would become the hottest year in the row on global measurements. Notwithstanding reputed scientific organisations (as Goddard Institute for Space Studies by NASA) were alerting the community about localised warming episodes in terms of temperature variations compared with a baseline average. The following year North America and the Arctic showed the biggest temperature anomalies ever occurred (Feb 2016). (A) Now we know that while the PCD was under discussion, global temperature raise had made their target unattainable

In the midst of this complicated scenario, last April 22nd, 2016 it was produced the PCD ratification ceremony in NY under the chair of UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon. There, 175 countries representatives attended the ceremony to sign the PCD and to compromise that their respective parliaments will soon ratify or endorse the Climate Deal. As soon as the document be ratified and delivered to UN by 55 larger CO emitters, then the PCD will become fully operational. Deadline to ratify is the year 2020. Notably, 4 countries are solely responsible for about half of the amount of CO2 emitted to the troposphere whereas 10 world economies are making up over 70% of that (and just 20 ones are responsible for 80%, an unfortunate example of the Pareto principle). (Please read SR25 LinkedIn dated September 2016). Because of the reverse of the coin: 155 attendees’ countries have almost tied hands in this respect; they cannot do anything but wait and see what the 20 countries will decide. (B)

investing in RE and NUCLEAR ENERGIES NOW UNDER THE SPOT Clean energies can best help to moderate the GW as experts say. Actually, it is an extremely expensive long term strategy estimated in 24 trillion dollars (technology as accumulators/ infrastructure cost and most of all, ROI) to be invested all along next decades divesting from fossil fuels exploitations at the same time. It is a dramatic time watch race since temperature variations increase faster than estimated, whereas governmental main action plans go slower than forecasted.

As a direct consequence of the PCD commitment, investments on cleaner energies e.g., photovoltaic and also on nuclear, have begun to reactivate as informed in the Jan 2016 SR, status report FROM THIS AUTHOR:

SR11LinkedIn. CLEAN POWER AS EVER. As Bloomberg hitting report on clean energies has just disclosed China, is now leading the world's investment on the wind and solar-based energies. Despite crude oil, natural gas and coal prices cheapening, investments on clean energies are going up. Bearing in mind that China is the champion of the CO2 pollution worldwide (blamed for a 3rd of it) that is holly news for the CC/GW situation. It was said that the 200US$ oil barrel was redline beyond which investments on clean energies could pay off; unless the action course indicates otherwise. https://lnkd.in/ese_ithless .

Source: Bloomberg NEF

In the energy-matrix, oil alone is indeed the primary world’s source of energy (it accounts for 86% as BP reported): 32 bn barrels worldwide (44mm barrels daily in 2011). It is by far the largest source of power generation. Hence, the RE industry’s starting point is 8 to 10% of the worlds’ energetic pack, which offers plenty of ground ahead to compete in the subsequent years. The thing is: by how many? Some more variables in this scenario, i.e., the size of future demand for oil, the macroeconomic picture and, a crucial point today: would nuclear industry reactivates in light of the new parameters?

 

Nuclear installation in Japan. The energy matrix there will be shared among Nuclear, RE, Coal & Gas

 

Obviously, USA, EU and China gigantic economies cannot downsize their fossil fuels consumption from overnight without compromising their future economic development. Once again, the time counter is racing since global warming is irreversible, some said. “The world is hurtling towards an era when global concentrations of carbon dioxide never again dip below the 400 parts per million (ppm) milestone” (as The Guardian). Even if today CO2 net emission (total emissions less naturally absorbed ones) were zero, the levels of CO2 already stored since beginning of this millennium would not halt immediately. (C)
Its effect on the climate would prevail yet nobody knows for how long.

Many economies strive for reconciling old dependence on crude oil with new expensive investments on RE, thus turning their energy-mix to about a closer to “low-carbon economy”. The paradigm is China. Even for an oil producer country, this became a key strategy: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has set investment policies aimed to generate a third of their electricity demand using renewable energy in 2032

References and Bibliography

 
(A) Surf updates: http://climateanalytics.org/latest
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87691

(B) Article about main emitters: please consult https://www.businessinsider.com/these-6-countries-are-responsible-for-60-of-co2-emissions-2014-12?IR=T

(C) Both "The Guardian online" and reports from IEA are excellent sources of further information about


Since PCD, new terminology is coined in the specialised newspapers to define the horizon designed for countries to reach in the years 2099. Such as the so-called “low - carbon economy” meaning the preference to use clean energies to generate electricity, rather.Or else, "the carbon footprint" meaning the fossil fuels dependence degree.

NOTES.
1) In the OneWorld UK report cited here above: Dr Watson has turned on the alarms by issuing a report issue on http://oneworld.org/2016/09/26/global-warming-flashpoint-could-be-reached-by-2050-warn-scientists/